REIT Signal Desk

Sunbelt apartments · 30 Jun 2026

CPT

Camden

Implied cap

6.21%

-75bp tighter vs MAA, IRT

97.88

+1.16%

Equity if +50bp

-10.61%

Premium to peer NAV

+18.01%

MAA · IRT median

6.95%

MAA

7.00%

CPT

6.21%

IRT

6.91%

1H×2 NOI / (live market cap + filing net debt). +50bp holds NOI and debt fixed. Not a NAV.

Cycleshares-only

Sunbelt / gardenoccupancy / supply snapshot 3/5 · Deliveries vs occupancy. Cycle-beta vs gateway class-A.Sunbelt garden / urban mix

CPT Camden Property Trust

Yahoo Finance chart · often 15-min delayed

97.88

+1.16%

Volume / 20d

288949 / 1159617.45

52w

95.30 – 119.81

RSI

40.9

20-DMA

98.55

ATR

1.78

20d vol

16.9%

β VNQ

0.92

β TLT

0.37

In book

watch/other

12-month thesis

Cyclestub, not a thesis

A hold memo is not a 20-DMA blurb. Recs quote the falsifier. Invalidation is occupancy, trade-outs, refinancing wall, or private-market cap rates — not a close below the average. Two-sentence default is a stub until you write it.

REIT operating & capital structure

snapshot entered

Research and recs use the figure the company actually printed. AFFO stays n/a unless the release says AFFO. Core FFO, Nareit FFO, and FFOA are labeled as such. Your cap, your NAV, and your refi spread stay blank — those are not filings. REIT dividends are mostly ordinary income in a taxable account. Basis and holding period still matter. Not tax advice.

AFFO / sh

5.90

1H×2 of YTD Core AFFO/sh $2.95. Q2 print $1.39. Not TTM. Not a guide. Also printed: FFO/sh 6.75. FY26 Core FFO guide midpoint, reaffirmed. Q2 Core FFO/sh $1.68. Not AFFO.

AFFO yield

6.0%

AFFO payout

71.9%

Occupancy

95.7%

same-property, excluding California held for sale

SSNOI growth

-1.40%

Trade-out

-0.20%

new lease -3.30%

Implied cap

6.21%

1H×2

Cap ex-dev

n/a

NAV premium

n/a

Your NAV is not set. Peer-cap NAV and the +50bp NAV are in the cap path. Neither one is written here.

Net debt

$4.80B

Net debt / EBITDA

5.3

On average net debt, not the spot debt in the cap.

% floating

n/a

Div yield (Yahoo)

4.38%

Leverage quintile vs MF peers

Implied cap vs peers

-75bp

tighter vs MAA, IRT. Same layer, live marks, 1H×2 NOI window. Not a quality score.

Duration gap

n/a — need % floating or weighted-average maturity

Cap rates +50bp

n/a

n/a — need implied cap (printed NOI, filing net debt, and a matching equity value).

Occupancy −200bp

n/a

n/a — need occupancy snapshot.

Rates +100bp on floating debt

n/a

n/a — need % floating, net debt, and market cap.

Per door

NOI / door

$16,460

60,838 doors

Net debt / door

$78,957

Equity / door

$186,198

NOI/door vs Sunbelt / garden median $13,309.

NAV bridge

Equity value

n/a

NAV / sh

n/a

Premium

n/a

n/a — Your cap is not set. Do not default a cap.

12-month bridge

Trade-out

New lease

-3.30%

Renewal

+2.80%

Blended

-0.20%

Equal-weight mix

-0.25%

50/50 assumption, not the company's blend and not a forecast.

Mix and other lease effects

+0.05%

Refi

Interest / yr

n/a

Cents / sh

n/a

AFFO/sh − interest

n/a

n/a — The filing did not print a 24-month maturity wall. Interest only, no principal, no fees.

Supplement markets · Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025

Same property excluding the California portfolio held for sale. Not a supply estimate.

Market	Homes	Rev	Exp	SS NOI	Share	Occ.
D.C. Metro	6,194	+1.40%	+6.80%	-1.00%	16.1%	96.5%
Houston	7,278	+0.50%	+1.30%	0.00%	11.0%	95.1%
Phoenix	4,094	-0.20%	+2.80%	-1.50%	9.3%	95.9%
SE Florida	3,050	+1.10%	+1.10%	+1.10%	8.4%	95.9%
Dallas	5,148	+0.20%	-1.00%	+1.20%	8.1%	95.1%
Atlanta	4,270	+1.30%	+7.70%	-2.60%	7.9%	95.5%
Orlando	3,954	-0.40%	-6.30%	+3.10%	7.8%	96.2%
Tampa	3,104	-0.90%	-3.70%	+0.60%	7.4%	95.5%
Charlotte	3,510	-0.80%	+0.40%	-1.30%	6.9%	95.0%
Denver	2,873	-4.10%	+3.30%	-7.50%	6.3%	96.2%
Raleigh	2,892	-0.10%	+15.90%	-8.00%	4.7%	95.9%
Austin	3,360	-2.00%	+0.20%	-3.80%	4.5%	95.9%
Nashville	758	-1.20%	+24.60%	-12.00%	1.6%	95.8%

Camden supplemental, same-property second quarter comparisons, 30 Jun 2026.

Same-property occupancy 95.7% and same-property NOI −1.4% y/y are the release figures excluding the California portfolio held for sale. Effective new leases −3.3% / renewals +2.8% / blended −0.2%, also excluding California. Total homes 60,838 (supplement). NOI field is 1H×2 of printed YTD NOI $500,704k. Same-store NOI field is 1H×2 of printed Same Property NOI YTD $417,492k — that dollar pool may not be identical to the excluding-California growth rate. AFFO/sh is 1H×2 of YTD Core AFFO/sh $2.95 (Q2 Core AFFO/sh $1.39). FFO/sh is the reaffirmed FY26 Core FFO guide midpoint $6.75. Q2 distribution declared $1.06, annualized ×4 = $4.24. Net debt field is June 30 total debt $4,848,328k (supplement debt schedule) less June 30 cash $44,717k = $4,803,611k. The company's own net debt is an average, $4,653,825k for the quarter, and was not used in the cap. ND/annualized Adjusted EBITDAre 5.3× is that average, not the spot line. Pro forma ND/EBITDA 4.5× was end of July after the California sale and was not entered. NAV n/a.

Fundamentals

Sector

Real Estate

Mkt cap

$11.33B

$14.83B

Total debt

$4.87B

Cash

$44.72M

D/E

125.6

Div yield

4.38%

Div / sh

4.24

Yahoo β

0.81

P/B

2.64

PE (often n/a for REITs)

32.3

FCF

$139.68M

Crowd (labeled sentiment)

neutral · mention velocity 1.00× (last 8h vs prior) · authors 1 · occupancy

@sunbelttape: $CPT is the other sunbelt print. One cycle name. Adding it on velocity is how you get two of the same delivery tape.

Liquidity at this size

shares-onlyordinaryborrow n/a

ATM spread/mid 100% > 10% — 5–10 lot is not workable. Shares only.

Treated as a US listed ordinary.

ATM spread/mid 100.0% · OI 55 · 10-lot $100,000. Thresholds: spread/mid > 10% → shares-only; ATM OI < 50 or 10-lot notional > $250,000 → not a 10-lot. Missing bid/ask is unknown, not a block.

PM memo

DECISION: HOLD CPT.

Facts vs price vs crowd
· Last 97.88 (+1.16%) on Yahoo Finance chart · often 15-min delayed. Volume 288949 vs 20d avg 1159617.45.
· Tape: 20-DMA 98.55, 20d vol 16.9%, β(VNQ) 0.92, β(TLT) 0.37. DMA is context, not invalidation.
· Yahoo snapshot: mcap 11327903744, debt 4873028096, div yield 0.0438. FFO/AFFO/occupancy/NAV are n/a until entered — never invented. REIT dividends are mostly ordinary income. Not tax advice.
· Crowd (not fact): neutral · velocity 1.00× · authors 1 · occupancy. Live X scan snapshot (crowd sentiment, not fact).

What matters
· No engine card yet — treat as research only.

Invalidation
· A 3% shock or a broken fundamental print.

This is a research note, not financial advice. Data may be delayed or wrong.

Prints · CPT

REIT prints are SSNOI, occupancy, guidance, and cap-rate commentary — not a reason to dump a 12-month name. Dates are a cached research snapshot, not a live IR feed. Yahoo earnings stay on Research. The 1–5 chips are an occupancy/supply debate snapshot, not a live occupancy print.

2026-10-30MAAprintsunbelt
MAA Q3 SSNOI / occupancy / Sunbelt deliveries
Sunbelt deliveries vs occupancy and trade-outs. If they push through coverage, the cycle hold is wrong.
Cached research snapshot — typical print window, not a live IR calendar
2026-11-01CPTprintsunbelt
CPT Q3 occupancy / Sunbelt garden
Second sunbelt print — research, not a second cycle line. Occupancy vs deliveries.
Cached research snapshot — typical print window, not a live IR calendar

Add a dated print

Manual snapshot only. Occupancy / SSNOI / cap-rate commentary — not a live IR feed.