Research tool only. Not financial advice. Not tax advice. Data may be delayed, incomplete, or wrong. You can lose money.
REIT Signal Desk
Multifamily book · thesis-first · paper overlay
US cash session openMarks seed · X cached
Sunbelt apartments · 30 Jun 2026

MAA

Mid-America
Implied cap
7.00%

+44bp wider vs CPT, IRT

116.98
+0.68%
Equity if +50bp
-9.37%
Premium to peer NAV
-8.70%
CPT · IRT median
6.56%
MAA
7.00%
CPT
6.21%
IRT
6.91%

1H×2 NOI / (live market cap + filing net debt). +50bp holds NOI and debt fixed. Not a NAV.

Cycleshares-only
Sunbelt / gardenoccupancy / supply snapshot 3/5 · Deliveries vs occupancy. Cycle-beta vs gateway class-A.Sunbelt occupancy & rents

MAA Mid-America Apartment Communiti

Yahoo Finance chart · often 15-min delayed

116.98
+0.68%
Volume / 20d
398153 / 1301162.65
52w
113.95 – 144.41
RSI
38.0
20-DMA
118.52
ATR
2.20
20d vol
17.4%
β VNQ
0.87
β TLT
0.40
In book
yes

12-month thesis

Cyclewritten

A hold memo is not a 20-DMA blurb. Recs quote the falsifier. Invalidation is occupancy, trade-outs, refinancing wall, or private-market cap rates — not a close below the average. Two-sentence default is a stub until you write it.

Lots

1/1 long-term

FIFO. Long-term clock is 365d from opened. Wash-sale window is 30d after a sale — warn, not a hard block. Not tax advice.

NameQtyCostOpenedDaysLT onClockSource
MAA705.00128.402025-09-044122026-09-04LTseed

REIT operating & capital structure

snapshot entered

Research and recs use the figure the company actually printed. AFFO stays n/a unless the release says AFFO. Core FFO, Nareit FFO, and FFOA are labeled as such. Your cap, your NAV, and your refi spread stay blank — those are not filings. REIT dividends are mostly ordinary income in a taxable account. Basis and holding period still matter. Not tax advice.

AFFO / sh
7.50
FY26 guide midpoint Also printed: FFO/sh 8.53. FY26 Core FFO guide midpoint. Not AFFO. AFFO/sh is the separate FY26 Core AFFO guide midpoint.
AFFO yield
6.4%
AFFO payout
81.6%
Occupancy
95.3%
physical same-store
SSNOI growth
-1.00%
Trade-out
+0.70%
new lease -5.30%
Implied cap
7.00%
1H×2
Cap ex-dev
7.4%
NAV premium
n/a
Your NAV is not set. Peer-cap NAV and the +50bp NAV are in the cap path. Neither one is written here.
Net debt
$5.64B
Net debt / EBITDA
4.5
% floating
13.4%
Div yield (Yahoo)
5.27%
Leverage quintile vs MF peers
Q1
Implied cap vs peers
+44bp

wider vs CPT, IRT. Same layer, live marks, 1H×2 NOI window. Not a quality score.

Duration gap
Floating share is printed and is not above 25%. Maturity is not the short-wall case. That is not a claim the book is fixed.
Cap rates +50bp
-$7,725

Exact revalue: NOI / (implied cap + 50bp) − filing net debt, then the percent change in equity times the position. Scenario, not a forecast.

Occupancy −200bp
-$4,054

Revenue −200bp / occupancy, NOI hit ÷ a 0.60 margin assumption (opex sticky), then × EV/equity. The 0.60 is not a print. Scenario, not a forecast.

Rates +100bp on floating debt
-$358

Your share of the company: (position / market cap) × net debt × % floating × 1% × 8. Not the whole company's interest bill. Scenario, not a forecast.

Per door
NOI / door
$13,309
102,873 doors
Net debt / door
$54,826
Equity / door
$135,277

NOI/door vs Sunbelt / garden median $13,309.

NAV bridge
Equity value
n/a
NAV / sh
n/a
Premium
n/a

n/a — Your cap is not set. Do not default a cap. Same-store NOI is not set. Do not substitute total NOI — that would cap development income and also add dev at cost.

12-month bridge
Trade-out
New lease
-5.30%
Renewal
+5.20%
Blended
+0.70%
Equal-weight mix
-0.05%
50/50 assumption, not the company's blend and not a forecast.
Mix and other lease effects
+0.75%
Refi
Interest / yr
n/a
Cents / sh
n/a
AFFO/sh − interest
n/a

n/a — The filing did not print a 24-month maturity wall. Interest only, no principal, no fees.

Supplement markets · Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025

Same-store NOI. Revenue and expense are the same table. An expense jump can move NOI without a revenue change.

MarketHomesRevExpSS NOIShareOcc.
Atlanta11,4340.00%-0.80%+0.60%12.0%95.2%
Dallas9,523+0.80%+4.80%-2.10%9.0%95.0%
Orlando5,907-0.10%-2.40%+1.30%7.4%95.5%
Tampa5,416-0.90%+1.20%-2.00%7.1%95.8%
Other6,5020.00%+1.30%-0.70%6.5%95.4%
Charlotte5,707-1.10%+1.00%-2.10%6.2%95.7%
Austin7,179-3.10%+0.60%-6.70%5.3%95.0%
Raleigh/Durham5,156-1.60%-0.80%-2.00%5.1%95.3%
Nashville4,375-1.30%+1.70%-2.90%4.7%95.3%
Phoenix3,291+0.20%+6.50%-2.40%3.9%95.4%
Houston4,859+0.90%-1.40%+2.90%3.9%95.6%
Charleston3,168+3.10%+2.30%+3.50%3.9%95.9%
Fort Worth3,687-0.40%-2.90%+1.50%3.6%95.3%
Northern Virginia1,888+1.70%+2.90%+1.10%3.3%96.1%
Jacksonville3,496-1.70%+0.50%-3.20%2.9%94.7%
Richmond1,732+4.70%+2.40%+5.80%2.1%96.2%
Greenville2,354+0.80%-1.60%+2.50%2.1%95.4%
Fredericksburg1,4350.00%+3.00%-1.10%2.0%95.6%
Savannah1,837-1.80%-5.20%+0.40%2.0%95.1%
Denver1,118-4.00%+2.60%-7.10%1.4%95.8%
Birmingham1,462+0.80%+2.20%-0.10%1.3%95.2%
Kansas City1,110+1.60%-0.80%+2.90%1.2%95.6%
San Antonio1,504-3.30%+1.50%-7.20%1.1%94.4%
Memphis1,193-1.10%+23.60%-12.10%1.0%94.6%
Huntsville1,228-3.00%-0.80%-4.30%1.0%93.9%

MAA supplemental S-4 and S-5, quarter ended 30 Jun 2026.

Fundamentals

Sector
Real Estate
Mkt cap
$13.92B
EV
$19.29B
Total debt
$5.72B
Cash
$51.84M
D/E
102.4
Div yield
5.27%
Div / sh
6.12
Yahoo β
0.73
P/B
2.50
PE (often n/a for REITs)
34.2
FCF
$921.18M

Crowd (labeled sentiment)

bull · mention velocity 4.00× (last 8h vs prior) · authors 3 · occupancy, positioning

  • @sunbelttape: $MAA deliveries vs occupancy is the cycle tape. A beat that restates 'still leasing' is already in the multiple.
  • @sunbelttape: Crowd long $MAA on 'supply peaked.' Deliveries vs occupancy is still the cycle tape. A beat that restates still-leasing is already in the multiple.
  • @optionsdesk: Sunbelt IV in $MAA is not distressed. If you need convexity the market already charged you. Shares or a CSP, not long calls.
  • @ajncunha: Live tape: $MAA as a Sunbelt long, supply peaked. Deliveries vs occupancy is still the cycle tape. Positioning, not a new falsifier.
TRIMMAAMid-America Apartment Communiticonv 2/5positioncycleshares-onlyMixedcrowd fav
Size
$29,069 · 7.4% · 248 sh
Last / 20-DMA
116.98 / 118.52
ATR stop / stretch
119.62 / 112.14
Risk contrib
1.3%
Why now
  • Sleeve: Cycle (working range 20–25%, now 21.1%). The range is a prior. TRIM is not a fill just because the range is open.
  • Risk-control, not a falsifier trip. Cut because of the name cap or the CSP-only default — not because the range was open.
  • Single-name weight 21.1% exceeds the 12% cap. This is a risk-control trim, not a view change. The sleeve range is not the trim.
  • Crowd sentiment (Live X scan snapshot (crowd sentiment, not fact)): bull · velocity 4.00× · bull/bear 100 · authors 3. This is chatter, not fact.
  • Narrative cluster: occupancy, positioning.
  • Tape (context, not invalidation): last 116.98 vs 20-DMA 118.52, 20-day vol 17.4%, β(VNQ) 0.87, β(TLT) 0.40. A DMA is not the falsifier.
Invalidation
  • If the falsifier has not tripped, this is risk-control — not a view change.
  • Falsifier still: Sunbelt deliveries push occupancy and blended trade-outs through coverage. Q2 2026 already prints 95.3% physical occupancy, SSNOI −1.0%, blended +0.7% with new leases −5.3%. A further occupancy/coverage break vs that path is the kill — not a 20-DMA close.

Crowd: bull crowd (occupancy) — labeled crowd sentiment

Model: 12-month card / sleeve / risk-control · diverge

Shares-only at this size — overlay refused. ATM spread/mid 111% > 10% — 5–10 lot is not workable. Shares only. Borrow n/a (never invented).

Falsifier: Sunbelt deliveries push occupancy and blended trade-outs through coverage. Q2 2026 already prints 95.3% physical occupancy, SSNOI −1.0%, blended +0.7% with new leases −5.3%. A further occupancy/coverage break vs that path is the kill — not a 20-DMA close.

Sources: yahoo · Daily OHLCV window (Yahoo when live, factor snapshot on seed) · Fundamentals snapshot · Live X scan snapshot (crowd sentiment, not fact) · Yahoo options · delayed · as of 2026-10-09T20:20:14.917Z

Pairs — expression, not 55 names

6–12m relative and z of the log-ratio, as context. Recs do not TRIM or ADD off that z. A price ratio is not a cap-rate comp, and it is not a reason to rotate a 12-month hold.

Gateway vs sunbeltEQR / MAAstretchedz +1.65 · 251d
LegLast6m12mBook
EQR
Gateway class-A
61.16+0.03%-0.83%10.7%
MAA
Sunbelt / garden
116.98-7.45%-13.29%21.1%
shares-only

EQR vs MAA 6m rel +7.48% · 12m rel +12.46%. EQR rich / MAA cheap on the log-ratio.

SFR vs apartmentsINVH / MAAtiltz +1.44 · 252d
LegLast6m12mBook
INVH
Single-family rental
26.81+3.02%-4.27%—
shares-only
MAA
Sunbelt / garden
116.98-7.45%-13.29%21.1%
shares-only

INVH vs MAA 6m rel +10.46% · 12m rel +9.02%. INVH rich / MAA cheap on the log-ratio.

Liquidity at this size

shares-onlyordinaryborrow n/a

ATM spread/mid 111% > 10% — 5–10 lot is not workable. Shares only.

Treated as a US listed ordinary.

ATM spread/mid 111.1% · OI 126 · 10-lot $115,000. Thresholds: spread/mid > 10% → shares-only; ATM OI < 50 or 10-lot notional > $250,000 → not a 10-lot. Missing bid/ask is unknown, not a block.

PM memo

Prints · MAA

REIT prints are SSNOI, occupancy, guidance, and cap-rate commentary — not a reason to dump a 12-month name. Dates are a cached research snapshot, not a live IR feed. Yahoo earnings stay on Research. The 1–5 chips are an occupancy/supply debate snapshot, not a live occupancy print.

  • 2026-10-30MAAprintsunbelt
    MAA Q3 SSNOI / occupancy / Sunbelt deliveries

    Sunbelt deliveries vs occupancy and trade-outs. If they push through coverage, the cycle hold is wrong.

    Cached research snapshot — typical print window, not a live IR calendar

  • 2026-11-01CPTprintsunbelt
    CPT Q3 occupancy / Sunbelt garden

    Second sunbelt print — research, not a second cycle line. Occupancy vs deliveries.

    Cached research snapshot — typical print window, not a live IR calendar

Add a dated print

Manual snapshot only. Occupancy / SSNOI / cap-rate commentary — not a live IR feed.