REIT Signal Desk

Levered small-cap · 30 Jun 2026

NXRT

NexPoint Residential

Implied cap

5.79%

n/a — no other live name in the layer with this NOI window.

19.52

-0.71%

Equity if +50bp

-20.59%

Premium to peer NAV

n/a

Peer cap

n/a

1H×2 NOI / (live market cap + filing net debt). +50bp holds NOI and debt fixed. Not a NAV.

SatelliteCSP onlyordinary

Small-cap / leveredoccupancy / supply snapshot 2/5 · Leverage / refi wall is the credit snapshot. Not an occupancy slogan.Value-add / levered Sunbelt · CSP-only default

NXRT NexPoint Residential Trust, Inc

Yahoo Finance chart · often 15-min delayed

19.52

-0.71%

Volume / 20d

164330 / 969001.5

52w

18.14 – 32.36

RSI

38.0

20-DMA

20.29

ATR

0.78

20d vol

45.6%

β VNQ

1.13

β TLT

0.51

In book

watch/other

12-month thesis

Satellitewritten

A hold memo is not a 20-DMA blurb. Recs quote the falsifier. Invalidation is occupancy, trade-outs, refinancing wall, or private-market cap rates — not a close below the average. Two-sentence default is a stub until you write it.

Variant perceptionDurationFalsifierAlready in the multiple

REIT operating & capital structure

levered small-capCSP-only defaultsnapshot entered

Research and recs use the figure the company actually printed. AFFO stays n/a unless the release says AFFO. Core FFO, Nareit FFO, and FFOA are labeled as such. Your cap, your NAV, and your refi spread stay blank — those are not filings. REIT dividends are mostly ordinary income in a taxable account. Basis and holding period still matter. Not tax advice.

AFFO / sh

2.86

FY26 guide midpoint Also printed: FFO/sh 2.68. 1H×2 of YTD Core FFO/sh $1.34. Not the AFFO guide.

AFFO yield

14.7%

AFFO payout

74.1%

Occupancy

93.6%

physical same-store

SSNOI growth

-2.90%

Trade-out

-1.16%

blended lags

Implied cap

5.79%

1H×2

Cap ex-dev

n/a

NAV premium

n/a

Your NAV is not set. Peer-cap NAV and the +50bp NAV are in the cap path. Neither one is written here.

Net debt

$1.60B

Net debt / EBITDA

n/a

% floating

n/a

Div yield (Yahoo)

10.78%

Leverage quintile vs MF peers

n/a

Implied cap vs peers

n/a

n/a — no other live name in the layer with this NOI window.

Duration gap

n/a — need % floating or weighted-average maturity

Cap rates +50bp

n/a

n/a — need implied cap (printed NOI, filing net debt, and a matching equity value).

Occupancy −200bp

n/a

n/a — need occupancy snapshot.

Rates +100bp on floating debt

n/a

n/a — need % floating, net debt, and market cap.

Per door

NOI / door

$11,349

13,305 doors

Net debt / door

$120,367

Equity / door

$75,709

n/a — need a second name in the layer with NOI and units

NAV bridge

Equity value

n/a

NAV / sh

n/a

Premium

n/a

n/a — Your cap is not set. Do not default a cap. Same-store NOI is not set. Do not substitute total NOI — that would cap development income and also add dev at cost.

12-month bridge

Trade-out

New lease

n/a

Renewal

n/a

Blended

-1.16%

Refi

Interest / yr

n/a

Cents / sh

n/a

AFFO/sh − interest

n/a

n/a — The wall is on the card. Your refi spread is not set. Do not default a spread. Interest only, no principal, no fees.

CSP-only satellite. SS ending physical occupancy 93.6% Q2 (portfolio 93.5% across 36 properties / 13,305 units). SSNOI −2.9% y/y (SS NOI $36.9M); YTD SSNOI −2.8%. Blended lease trade-out −1.16%. New vs renewal was not printed separately. Total NOI Q2 $37.9M / YTD $75.5M — NOI field is 1H26×2 annualized ($151.0M). FFO/sh Q2 $0.60 / YTD $1.28; Core FFO/sh Q2 $0.66 / YTD $1.34; FFO/sh field is 1H×2 of the YTD Core FFO print ($2.68). AFFO/sh Q2 $0.77 / YTD $1.54. AFFO/sh field is FY26 AFFO/sh guidance midpoint $2.86 (release mid $73,269k / $2.86), not the Core FFO figure. Dividend $0.53/qtr ($2.12 annual). AFFO coverage 1.45× Q2 (dividend coverage, not interest coverage). Net debt $1,601,484k; total debt $1,622,674k; leverage 69% (debt / mcap+debt) — not entered as net-debt/gross-assets. ND/EBITDA was not printed. A vendor TTM ratio was not entered. % floating n/a as a single printed total; swaps fix $817.5M (~51.5% of floating-rate mortgage); ~$717.5M of that protection rolls off Sept 2026 at ~1.14% WA. No scheduled maturities until 2028 ($33M fixed) — that $33M is the 24m wall field. WAM n/a. NAV n/a (internal NAV mentioned, per-share not printed). Velocity is a fade, not a bid.

Fundamentals

Sector

Real Estate

Mkt cap

$1.01B

$2.08B

Total debt

$1.59B

Cash

$20.03M

D/E

629.2

Div yield

10.78%

Div / sh

2.12

Yahoo β

1.21

P/B

2.01

PE (often n/a for REITs)

n/a

FCF

$71.45M

Crowd (labeled sentiment)

bear · mention velocity 6.00× (last 8h vs prior) · authors 6 · positioning, refinancing, meme squeeze

Levered small-cap crowd velocity is a warning, not a bid. Refi / floating mix is the card.

@leveredmf: $NXRT tape is loud because it's small and levered. Velocity is a warning, not a bid. Refi wall / floating mix is the card.
@leveredmf: $NXRT floating mix is the card. Crowd asking whether $CPT buys it for pennies is positioning, not a 12-month hold. Velocity is a warning.
@creditape: $NXRT debt mostly unhedged. Barely covering the dividend is not a bargain occupancy print. CSP-only until the refi wall is the card.
@housingtape: $NXRT lowest multiple in the apartment book because of leverage and governance, not because occupancy is a free option. Fade the squeeze tape.
@memeliquid: NXRT TO THE MOON 100x guaranteed apartment squeeze $NXRT

Liquidity at this size

1-lot overlayordinaryborrow n/a

ATM OI 8 < 50 — 10-lot would be a large fraction of the open

Treated as a US listed ordinary.

ATM spread/mid unquoted · OI 8 · 10-lot $20,000. Thresholds: spread/mid > 10% → shares-only; ATM OI < 50 or 10-lot notional > $250,000 → not a 10-lot. Missing bid/ask is unknown, not a block.

PM memo

DECISION: HOLD NXRT.

Facts vs price vs crowd
· Last 19.52 (-0.71%) on Yahoo Finance chart · often 15-min delayed. Volume 164330 vs 20d avg 969001.5.
· Tape: 20-DMA 20.29, 20d vol 45.6%, β(VNQ) 1.13, β(TLT) 0.51. DMA is context, not invalidation.
· Yahoo snapshot: mcap 1007306176, debt 1589496064, div yield 0.1078. FFO/AFFO/occupancy/NAV are n/a until entered — never invented. REIT dividends are mostly ordinary income. Not tax advice.
· Crowd (not fact): bear · velocity 6.00× · authors 6 · positioning, refinancing, meme squeeze. Live X scan snapshot (crowd sentiment, not fact).

What matters
· No engine card yet — treat as research only.

Invalidation
· A 3% shock or a broken fundamental print.

This is a research note, not financial advice. Data may be delayed or wrong.

Prints · NXRT

REIT prints are SSNOI, occupancy, guidance, and cap-rate commentary — not a reason to dump a 12-month name. Dates are a cached research snapshot, not a live IR feed. Yahoo earnings stay on Research. The 1–5 chips are an occupancy/supply debate snapshot, not a live occupancy print.

2026-11-06NXRTrefismallcap
NXRT Q3 / refinancing wall commentary
Refi wall + floating mix vs AFFO. Satellite sits out the print. Crowd velocity is a warning, not a bid.
Cached research snapshot — typical print window, not a live IR calendar

Add a dated print

Manual snapshot only. Occupancy / SSNOI / cap-rate commentary — not a live IR feed.