REIT Signal Desk

Gateway apartments · 30 Jun 2026

UDR

Implied cap

6.22%

+101bp wider vs ESS

34.28

+2.10%

Equity if +50bp

-10.87%

Premium to peer NAV

-22.07%

ESS median

5.21%

ESS

5.21%

UDR

6.22%

1H×2 NOI / (live market cap + filing net debt). +50bp holds NOI and debt fixed. Not a NAV.

Coreshares-only

Gateway class-Aoccupancy / supply snapshot 4/5 · Coastal infill / rent-control still the scarce-dirt argument. Snapshot of the debate, not a live occupancy feed.Diversified class-A MF

UDR UDR, Inc.

Yahoo Finance chart · often 15-min delayed

34.28

+2.10%

Volume / 20d

2491296 / 4130674.8

52w

32.94 – 42.00

RSI

46.4

20-DMA

33.96

ATR

0.61

20d vol

17.0%

β VNQ

0.95

β TLT

0.35

In book

yes

12-month thesis

Corestub, not a thesis

A hold memo is not a 20-DMA blurb. Recs quote the falsifier. Invalidation is occupancy, trade-outs, refinancing wall, or private-market cap rates — not a close below the average. Two-sentence default is a stub until you write it.

Lots

1/1 long-term

FIFO. Long-term clock is 365d from opened. Wash-sale window is 30d after a sale — warn, not a hard block. Not tax advice.

Name	Qty	Cost	Opened	Days	LT on	Clock	Source
UDR	968.00	36.20	2025-06-18	490	2026-06-18	LT	seed

REIT operating & capital structure

snapshot entered

Research and recs use the figure the company actually printed. AFFO stays n/a unless the release says AFFO. Core FFO, Nareit FFO, and FFOA are labeled as such. Your cap, your NAV, and your refi spread stay blank — those are not filings. REIT dividends are mostly ordinary income in a taxable account. Basis and holding period still matter. Not tax advice.

FFO / sh

2.53

FY26 FFOA guide midpoint. Not AFFO.

FFO yield

7.4%

FFO payout

68.8%

Occupancy

96.6%

physical same-store

SSNOI growth

+1.40%

Trade-out

+2.10%

new lease -0.60%

Implied cap

6.22%

1H×2

Cap ex-dev

n/a

NAV premium

n/a

Your NAV is not set. Peer-cap NAV and the +50bp NAV are in the cap path. Neither one is written here.

Net debt

$5.81B

Net debt / EBITDA

5.6

% floating

11.9%

Div yield (Yahoo)

5.18%

Leverage quintile vs MF peers

Implied cap vs peers

+101bp

wider vs ESS. Same layer, live marks, 1H×2 NOI window. Not a quality score.

Duration gap

Short weighted-average maturity. The wall is the risk. Floating share is not what makes this one different.

Cap rates +50bp

-$3,608

Exact revalue: NOI / (implied cap + 50bp) − filing net debt, then the percent change in equity times the position. Scenario, not a forecast.

Occupancy −200bp

-$1,673

Revenue −200bp / occupancy, NOI hit ÷ a 0.60 margin assumption (opex sticky), then × EV/equity. The 0.60 is not a print. Scenario, not a forecast.

Rates +100bp on floating debt

-$146

Your share of the company: (position / market cap) × net debt × % floating × 1% × 8. Not the whole company's interest bill. Scenario, not a forecast.

Per door

NOI / door

$21,228

53,938 doors

Net debt / door

$107,765

Equity / door

$233,442

Not a comp — NOI windows differ inside Gateway class-A. Read NOI/door, don't rank.

NAV bridge

Equity value

n/a

NAV / sh

n/a

Premium

n/a

n/a — Your cap is not set. Do not default a cap. Same-store NOI is not set. Do not substitute total NOI — that would cap development income and also add dev at cost.

12-month bridge

Trade-out

New lease

-0.60%

Renewal

+4.20%

Blended

+2.10%

Equal-weight mix

+1.80%

50/50 assumption, not the company's blend and not a forecast.

Mix and other lease effects

+0.30%

Refi

Interest / yr

n/a

Cents / sh

n/a

AFFO/sh − interest

n/a

n/a — The wall is on the card. Your refi spread is not set. Do not default a spread. Interest only, no principal, no fees.

Supplement markets · Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025

Major markets. Region subtotals are left off so the rows are not counted twice.

Market	Homes	Rev	Exp	SS NOI	Share	Occ.
Metropolitan DC	9,119	+1.30%	+2.80%	+0.60%	16.5%	96.6%
Boston	4,667	+2.10%	+3.70%	+1.40%	11.8%	96.7%
Orange County	4,305	+2.00%	+0.20%	+2.50%	11.5%	96.3%
San Francisco	3,317	+8.00%	+12.20%	+6.50%	9.7%	97.8%
Dallas	7,449	+0.30%	+3.30%	-1.50%	8.9%	96.6%
New York	1,945	+4.00%	+0.50%	+6.90%	6.2%	97.6%
Seattle	2,290	+1.90%	+2.00%	+1.90%	5.3%	97.3%
Tampa	3,611	-1.70%	+2.10%	-3.60%	5.3%	96.6%
Other	2,810	+0.20%	+4.70%	-1.40%	5.0%	96.1%
Orlando	3,293	-0.70%	-2.30%	+0.10%	4.6%	96.7%
Monterey Peninsula	1,567	+2.40%	-2.20%	+4.00%	3.0%	96.2%
Los Angeles	1,225	+1.00%	-2.80%	+2.70%	2.9%	95.8%
Nashville	2,055	-0.30%	+4.80%	-2.30%	2.6%	95.2%
Baltimore	1,721	+3.10%	+7.30%	+0.70%	2.5%	96.9%
Philadelphia	1,172	+4.40%	+4.20%	+4.50%	2.2%	97.0%
Austin	1,880	-5.80%	-6.30%	-5.40%	2.0%	97.0%

UDR supplemental Attachment 8(A), same-store by major market, 30 Jun 2026.

Same-store physical occupancy 96.6% Q2. SSNOI y/y +1.4%. Q2 effective lease-rate growth: new −0.6% / renewal +4.2% / blended +2.1% (portfolio weighted average). Homes in real estate held for investment 53,938. Excludes 685 homes under development, not yet completed. Same-store NOI Q2 $275,613k was not annualized into the same-store NOI field — YTD same-store dollars were not the input. Total property NOI YTD (10-Q) $572,486k — NOI field is 1H26×2 annualized ($1,144,972k), not a broker TTM. FFO/sh Q2 $0.60 / YTD $1.23; FFO as Adjusted/sh Q2 $0.64 / YTD $1.25; FFO/sh field is the FY26 FFOA guide midpoint $2.53. FFOA is not AFFO — AFFO n/a. Net debt $5,812,639k; ND/EBITDAre 5.6×; debt/total assets 32.7%; interest coverage 5.2×; FCCR 5.0×. Floating 11.9% of total debt (printed). WAM 3.9y. $328.4M (6.2% of consolidated debt) matures through rest of 2026 excluding revolver/CP/working-capital line. Dividend $0.145/month ($1.74 annualized). One commenced development, 4848 at Alex West, expected cost $181.3M, is not the whole pipeline and was not entered as dev-at-cost. NAV n/a.

Fundamentals

Sector

Real Estate

Mkt cap

$12.59B

$17.72B

Total debt

$5.99B

Cash

$2.83M

D/E

156.1

Div yield

5.18%

Div / sh

1.74

Yahoo β

0.71

P/B

3.80

PE (often n/a for REITs)

21.7

FCF

$779.83M

Crowd (labeled sentiment)

neutral · mention velocity 1.00× (last 8h vs prior) · authors 1 · positioning

@reitdesk: $UDR is the diversified class-A line. Fine as core ballast. Not the occupancy-cycle expression.
@reitdesk: Live tape: $UDR occupancy mid-96s and blended +2.1% is ballast. Diversified class-A, not the cycle expression. Don't stack it with $MAA.

HOLDUDRUDR, Inc.conv 2/5positioncorestub thesisshares-onlyMixed

Size

$0 · 0.0% · 0 sh

Last / 20-DMA

34.28 / 33.96

ATR stop / stretch

33.31 / 35.73

Risk contrib

0.0%

Why now

Sleeve: Core (working range 50–60%, now 52.8%). The range is a prior. HOLD is not a fill just because the range is open.
No edge large enough to pay spread and tax. Cash is a position — standing still is a decision.
Crowd sentiment (Live X scan snapshot (crowd sentiment, not fact)): neutral · velocity 1.00× · bull/bear 0 · authors 1. This is chatter, not fact.
Narrative cluster: positioning.
Tape (context, not invalidation): last 34.27 vs 20-DMA 33.96, 20-day vol 17.0%, β(VNQ) 0.95, β(TLT) 0.35. A DMA is not the falsifier.
REIT snapshot: occ 96.6%, SSNOI 1.4%, FFO/sh 2.53 (not AFFO), FFO yield 7.4%, implied cap 6.22%, div 5.18% (ordinary-income heavy — not tax advice). Missing → n/a, never invented.

Invalidation

Invalidation is a broken print vs the falsifier, not a 3% down day. Private-market cap rates move and the implied cap does not, or occupancy/trade-outs break coverage. Not a 20-DMA close.

Crowd: neutral crowd (positioning) — labeled crowd sentiment

Model: stub card — tape is context · diverge

Shares-only at this size — overlay refused. ATM spread/mid 72% > 10% — 5–10 lot is not workable. Shares only. Borrow n/a (never invented).

Falsifier (stub): Private-market cap rates move and the implied cap does not, or occupancy/trade-outs break coverage. Not a 20-DMA close.

Sources: yahoo · Daily OHLCV window (Yahoo when live, factor snapshot on seed) · Fundamentals snapshot · Live X scan snapshot (crowd sentiment, not fact) · Yahoo options · delayed · as of 2026-10-09T20:20:14.917Z

Liquidity at this size

shares-onlyordinaryborrow n/a

ATM spread/mid 72% > 10% — 5–10 lot is not workable. Shares only.

Treated as a US listed ordinary.

ATM spread/mid 72.0% · OI 65 · 10-lot $35,000. Thresholds: spread/mid > 10% → shares-only; ATM OI < 50 or 10-lot notional > $250,000 → not a 10-lot. Missing bid/ask is unknown, not a block.

PM memo

DECISION: HOLD UDR · conviction 2/5 · position.

Facts vs price vs crowd
· Last 34.27 (+2.10%) on Yahoo Finance chart · often 15-min delayed. Volume 2491296 vs 20d avg 4130674.8.
· Tape: 20-DMA 33.96, 20d vol 17.0%, β(VNQ) 0.95, β(TLT) 0.35. DMA is context, not invalidation.
· Yahoo snapshot: mcap 12591409152, debt 5994848256, div yield 0.051799998. FFO/AFFO/occupancy/NAV are n/a until entered — never invented. REIT dividends are mostly ordinary income. Not tax advice.
· Crowd (not fact): neutral · velocity 1.00× · authors 1 · positioning. Live X scan snapshot (crowd sentiment, not fact).

What matters
· Sleeve: Core (working range 50–60%, now 52.8%). The range is a prior. HOLD is not a fill just because the range is open.
· No edge large enough to pay spread and tax. Cash is a position — standing still is a decision.
· Crowd sentiment (Live X scan snapshot (crowd sentiment, not fact)): neutral · velocity 1.00× · bull/bear 0 · authors 1. This is chatter, not fact.
· Narrative cluster: positioning.
· Tape (context, not invalidation): last 34.27 vs 20-DMA 33.96, 20-day vol 17.0%, β(VNQ) 0.95, β(TLT) 0.35. A DMA is not the falsifier.
· REIT snapshot: occ 96.6%, SSNOI 1.4%, FFO/sh 2.53 (not AFFO), FFO yield 7.4%, implied cap 6.22%, div 5.18% (ordinary-income heavy — not tax advice). Missing → n/a, never invented.

Invalidation
· Invalidation is a broken print vs the falsifier, not a 3% down day. Private-market cap rates move and the implied cap does not, or occupancy/trade-outs break coverage. Not a 20-DMA close.

This is a research note, not financial advice. Data may be delayed or wrong.

Prints · UDR

REIT prints are SSNOI, occupancy, guidance, and cap-rate commentary — not a reason to dump a 12-month name. Dates are a cached research snapshot, not a live IR feed. Yahoo earnings stay on Research. The 1–5 chips are an occupancy/supply debate snapshot, not a live occupancy print.

2026-10-28EQRprintgateway
EQR Q3 SSNOI / occupancy / trade-outs
If occupancy or blended lease trade-outs break coverage, the gateway hold needs a re-underwrite — not a 20-DMA rule.
Cached research snapshot — typical print window, not a live IR calendar
2026-10-29AVBprintgateway
AVB Q3 occupancy / development pipeline
Development as % of assets and occupancy. A pipeline print that stretches coverage is the falsifier, not the session.
Cached research snapshot — typical print window, not a live IR calendar
2026-10-29ESSprintgateway
ESS Q3 West Coast occupancy / rents
West Coast rent-control / occupancy. A break vs the hold path is a coverage question, not a DMA close.
Cached research snapshot — typical print window, not a live IR calendar
2026-10-30UDRguidancegateway
UDR Q3 guidance / same-store
Guidance vs occupancy. A cut that is only the known path is already in the multiple.
Cached research snapshot — typical print window, not a live IR calendar

Add a dated print

Manual snapshot only. Occupancy / SSNOI / cap-rate commentary — not a live IR feed.